Bitcoin\u2019s current rally is drawing eerie comparisons to 2017, but Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal believes this crypto cycle could stretch into 2026. Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fears over oil disruptions are sending shockwaves through global markets and triggering high volatility across BTC, ETH, and XRP.<\/p>\n
The crypto market is undergoing a storm of macroeconomic momentum and geopolitical shockwaves, prompting analysts to draw parallels with previous bull cycles, most notably the landmark rally of 2017.<\/p>\n
Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision and former Goldman Sachs executive, believes that the current environment shares “spooky” similarities to 2017, yet is also setting the stage for an even longer and more volatile crypto cycle, potentially stretching into 2026.<\/p>\n
Simultaneously, escalating Middle East tensions<\/a>, fueled by a sudden U.S.-Israel-led strike on Iranian<\/a> nuclear facilities, have sent shockwaves through global markets.<\/p>\n The aftermath has triggered dramatic price swings in Bitcoin<\/a>, Ethereum<\/a>, XRP, and broader risk assets, while threatening global oil supply and further inflaming inflation fears.<\/p>\n According to Pal, Bitcoin’s current market<\/a> behavior eerily mimics the trend seen in 2017, when BTC climbed steadily throughout the year before its historic December breakout. In 2017, Bitcoin soared from $1,044 in January to $14,156 by December, a staggering 1,255% gain.<\/p>\n However, this time may be different. Pal emphasizes that macroeconomic indicators, especially his “business cycle score”, signal we\u2019re still early in the broader economic upcycle, and that could extend the crypto bull run for years.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s spookily similar to 2017,\u201d Pal said. \u201cBut this cycle could go longer, possibly into Q2 2026, especially with the weakening U.S. dollar acting as a tailwind.\u201d<\/p>\n Indeed, since the start of 2025, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped nearly 9%, sitting at 98.77, making Bitcoin more attractive as both a speculative asset and a potential hedge against fiat debasement.<\/p>\n Pal pointed out that macro forces, especially delayed interest rate adjustments and a stagnating dollar throughout much of 2024, have caused the crypto cycle to shift and potentially expand.<\/p>\n \u201cThe whole cycle got shifted because rates didn\u2019t get adjusted,\u201d he noted. \u201cThis looks more like 2020 than 2021, it feels like the earlier stages of a bull market.\u201d<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the Middle East is rapidly emerging as a crypto hub. On a recent trip to the region, Pal met with several Sovereign Wealth Funds across Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar. Their verdict?<\/p>\n \u201cThe mandate across the region is clear: AI and blockchain. Governments aren\u2019t just investing in Bitcoin, they\u2019re building entire infrastructures on the blockchain,\u201d Pal reported.<\/p>\n This growing institutional interest suggests that long-term capital is entering the space, potentially cushioning crypto against the typical boom-bust patterns.<\/p>\n However, just as macro tailwinds offered optimism, geopolitical tensions have rattled investor confidence.<\/p>\n On Saturday, the U.S., alongside Israeli forces, launched coordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. In retaliation, Iran fired 27 missiles into Israeli territory, hitting targets in Tel Aviv, Haifa, and the Golan Heights.<\/p>\n The chaos reverberated across markets:<\/p>\n 1. Bitcoin crashed to $100,945 within minutes of the announcement, shedding over $40 billion in market cap.<\/p>\n 2. It later rebounded slightly to $102,350, but warning signs remain.<\/p>\nBitcoin\u2019s Trajectory Echoes 2017, But the Cycle May Be Extended<\/h2>\n
Macro Tailwinds and Institutional Adoption Fuel Market Optimism<\/h2>\n
Chaos in the Middle East: War and Oil Choke Points Shake Crypto<\/h2>\n